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复利的真相

复利是与单利相对应的概念。单利的计算不用把利息计入本金;而复利恰恰相反,它的利息要并入本金中重复计息。

复利就是利滚利或者利上加利,一笔存款或者投资获得回报之后,再连本带利进行新一轮投资,这样不断循环,就是复利。

假设按1万元本金,每年的收益率20%,按复利方式计算,30年后连本带利总收益为237万元。若是单利,同样是20%的年收益率,30年后连本带利总收益只有区区7万元。这就是复利与单利的巨大差距。

以1万块本金举例:

  • 年复利10%,80年后可价值2048万。
  • 年复利15%,80年后可价值7.1亿。
  • 年复利20%,80年后可价值216亿。

复利被鼓吹为“世界第8大奇迹”。因此凡是讲投资理财的,都喜欢讲复利,因为数学的魔力,太可怕。

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

关于“复利”,你一定听过这样的故事:

古时候有个国王非常喜欢下棋,为了感谢国际象棋的发明者,国王答应满足发明者一个要求。发明者说:就在棋盘上发一些米粒吧,第一格1粒米,第二格2粒米,第三格4粒米,每一格都是前一格的两倍,一直到64格。

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

国王哈哈大笑的满口答应了,并对发明者说,你真傻,就要这么一点米粒?发明者回答到:就怕您的国库没有这么多米。

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

经过计算,放满国际象棋64格需要1844亿万粒米。这个数据太抽象,不好理解,我们换一个直观的说法。据粮食部门测算,1公斤大米约有米粒4 万个。换算成标准吨后,约等于4611亿吨,而我国2006年全国粮食产量约为4.9亿吨,相当于1000年的粮食产量。

关于“复利”你也一定听过巴菲特的故事,巴菲特14岁时大概5000美金的本金,到83岁时身家已经到了585亿美金。

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

不止在投资领域,关于个人的“成长”和“精进”,也流传着复利的神话,下面这个图你应该见过,甚至很多人把它作为头像,说的就是复利的力量:

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

是不是很鸡汤很励志?复利的力量确实很强大。

然而,假如你相信如上“复利理论”,也许就掉入了一个谎言的陷阱。

我们来看看复利的计算公式:

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

这个复利的计算公式中,有几个关键的指标:1、本金;2、利率;3、时间。

先说说本金

本金是投资的基本要素第一位,原因很简单,在任何一个理性的投资市场,本金的多寡永远是最重要的。投资,就是利用钱生钱,就是用我们的本金在市场中去盈利,没有本金何来盈利?

你可能会说:有钱了不起啊?sorry,有钱真的了不起!

我有个朋友,他说有个投资渠道可以长期稳定10%收益,但是又怕有风险,就在里面放了1万元,想用复利的方法投资。好吧,我们姑且按复利公式计算,10年后你大概连本带利可以收回约2.59万元。

同样的,如果你在里面放2万块,10年,按10%单利算,10年后连本带利可以收回4万块。

这样精确地举例计算,还有人觉得复利很厉害么?

讲真,如果你只有几万块钱,去研究复利挺浪费时间的,不如用这些时间和精力去研究怎么更好的赚钱,增加你的本金。

再说说利率

复利的神话里,有一个重要的假设,那就是利率是连续的、均匀的。只要你每年赚20%,连续30年,你就可以怎样怎样……

然而,这世界上没有什么投资可以保证稳定给你20%的收益,10%的都没有!我整理了一些常见的投资渠道及收益率:

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

常见投资渠道及收益

 

常见投资渠道中,有预期收益的、安全的,收益率一般都在5%以下,能到10%以上的基本都有风险,而且收益越高,风险越大。

有人根据wind数据分析,全市场只有33位基金经理,连续十年做到年化收益率超过10%。那么私募高手们呢?据统计,10年期年化收益率超过10%的私募基金经理,仅有37人。复利极大地高估了“连续性”。

国债是相对稳定的投资理财方式,可以看看10年期国债的收益率曲线:

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

看了这个曲线走势,锯齿型的,稳吗?

所以保证长期(10年以上)稳定年化收益率根本就是伪命题,很少有人可以做到,别谈“稳定在10%”这样的幻想了。

做投资一年收益率很高不难,难的是30年、40年收益都很高,就算你投资技术高超,保持每年收益率高于10%的概率是90%,那么30年不失手的概率也仅仅是4%,一旦失手,很可能就会前功尽弃。

时间

复利之所以有巨大的威力,是离不开时间效应的。

还是拿1万元本金、10%的复利举例:

  • 10年,连本带利收益为2.59万元;
  • 20年,连本带利收益为6.73万元;
  • 30年,连本带利收益为17.45万元;

1万元,10%的单利的话,10年本利收益为2万元和复利相差不大,复利10年以上,才逐渐显现其威力。

我们看看巴菲特的资产净值曲线图:

戳破投资理财中“复利”的谎言,这才是复利的真相

累计积值的蓝色阴影80%以上落在了晚年期(1999年以后),巴菲特出生于1930年,也就是说巴菲特69岁之后的收益占据了63年投资总收益的80%以上。即使巴菲特这么厉害的人物,在他60岁之前,其实资产也并不算多。

2020年,巴菲特90岁,他的搭档芒格96岁,都依然还活跃在投资领域。如果想要像巴菲特一样在复利投资的道路上走得更远,我觉得最应该学习的是他的健康和长寿。

靠复利实现财富自由?没那么容易!醒醒吧。“复利”并没有什么值得称奇的,也没有什么值得鼓吹的,爱因斯坦也没说过“复利是世界第八大奇迹”。

我们的父母这一辈,他们省吃俭用,攒钱储蓄,不断的利滚利,结果呢?借钱买房的人早早发了财,而只把钱放在银行吃利息的现在却更买不起房子了。(划重点,不是劝大家买房,地产黄金20年已过)

复利神话,是对“躺赢”的另外一种包装。很不幸,投资理财这件事情上,没有“躺赢”这回事。

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